The Weather Channel recently released a completely new iOS app. One of the new features of this enhancement is a tennis-specific weather forecast. Unfortunately, based on the predictions for the past couple of days, I have concluded that the algorithm doesn’t work all that well.
The day I drafted this post, the app forecasted “poor weather for tennis.” That included an hour-by-hour summary reflecting marginal conditions. To punctuate that assessment, the app also recommended indoor sports for me instead.
The fundamental problem is that conditions weren’t forecasted to be poor on that day. Additionally, the actual weather was beautiful. The temperature hovered in the mid-eighties, and there was only a whisper of a breeze. For July tennis in Texas, the conditions were pristine. It would be considered nice weather for any season.
While I have only sampled a few days of the tennis forecast, it has yet to predict a day with good tennis conditions. This is despite the fact that it is unseasonably cooler than normal and not at all windy. The weather has been really good this week.
Additionally, the Weather Channel app provides a combined tennis and pickleball forecast. While there are similarities between the two racquet sports, based on playing patterns in my local area, I believe that the ideal temperature ranges for playing the two sports are not identical. Pickleball players seem to tolerate heat better than tennis players, while tennis courts are more likely to be filled when the weather is straight-up cold. I think pickleball and tennis need separate playing condition assessments.
When I initially saw the tennis-specific forecast in the Weather Channel app, I had high hopes that it would be helpful. Unfortunately, significant work needs to be done to improve the accuracy. In any case, I am probably going to play tennis every day regardless of the conditions.
I once saw a study someone had done on the accuracy of weather forecasts. The conclusion was that if you say tomorrow’s weather is the same as today’s – you will be more accurate than the weather forecasts!