Team USA: Women's Olympic Tennis Speculation

Fiend at Court Unplugged

The tennis players who will be selected to play in the upcoming Tokyo Olympics is expected to be announced by July 5. The protocols and procedures for Olympic qualification are significantly divergent from what is used in professional tennis tournaments. For one thing, the nationality of the players really matters. Additionally there are Olympic rules that are intended to create balanced international participation. For most tennis fans, the process is foreign and mysterious.

Olympians must comply with the provisions of the Olympic Charter which includes an Anti-Doping Code and rules against “Manipulation of Competitions.” That is not all that different than the ITF, ATP and WTA tours. The player must also be in good standing with the ITF and their National Association. The player has to have played for (or been willing to play for) their country in International Competitions. In other words, the Davis Cup and the Billie Jean King Cup.

The Olympic Singles draw is capped at 64 participants for each gender. Many players will receive Direct Acceptance into the Olympics draw on the basis of their ATP and WTA rankings. However, Direct Acceptance is capped to players ranked in the top 56. Additionally, each nation is limited to 4 players in the Singles Draw. The rankings lists used for the selection for the upcoming Olympics is the one from 14 June.

For the United States Women, players ranked in the top 56 are Sofia Kenin (5), Serena Williams (8), Jennifer Brady (14), and Coco Gauff (23). Gauff narrowly edged out Jessica Pegula (26) and Madison Keys (28) for the final roster spot. Other USA women inside the top 56 include Alison Riske (31), Shelby Rogers (28), and Danielle Collins (48). If the 2020 Olympics had not been postponed to 2021, Madison Keys and Alison Risk would have been on the team instead of Jennifer Brady and Coco Gauff.

There is a chance that Serena Williams might decline her spot on the USA Olympic roster. It is still unclear if her 3-year-old daughter would be permitted to travel to Tokyo with Serena. Just last month Serena responded to a question about whether she would play the Olympics without her daughter. “I haven’t spent 24 hours without her, so that kind of answers the question itself.” If Serena is out, Jessica Pegula would become an Olympian.

Each nation may also nominate two doubles teams. However, the maximum number of players on the roster for each gender is capped at 6. That means that the USA women can add two additional players to the roster to play doubles and mixed. The Direct Acceptance Criteria for doubles only runs through the top 10 of the rankings. Nicole Melichar was ranked #9 on the June 14 WTA Doubles Ranking which locks her into the 5th spot on the USA Women’s Tennis roster.

That leaves one USA Women’s Tennis roster spot up for grabs. Here is the USTA published criteria for making the selection:

The USTA will use the following criteria listed in no priority order in determining whether or not to nominate any doubles players to the US Olympic Team:
• Number of singles players receiving invitations from the ITF;
• Ability of singles players to play doubles events.
• The ability of doubles players;
• Compatibility of players (doubles and singles);
• Success of players in doubles events;
• Aptitude for specific Tokyo event conditions (which include court surface, prior results at the venue, ball type, playing environment, and competition format);
• Estimated performance at the Games (most likely combination of players to win medals in the doubles events);
• Doubles rankings (ATP and WTA Tour respectively) as of June 8, 2020 including utilization of protected rankings, if applicable;
• Historical doubles performance in Grand Slams, Davis Cup/Fed Cup and Olympic competition from 2016 through the date of nomination in 2020;
• Physical health at the date of nomination as determined by a USTA designated physician;
• Prior playing experience and results with other nominated American doubles/singles players;
• Recommendation and input from doubles player/son desired playing partner/s; and/or
• Likelihood of acceptance by the ITF into the doubles competition.
USTA Doubles Nomination Criteria

Bethanie Mattek-Sands seems to be an obvious choice for the final roster spot. She is currently ranked 13th on the doubles rankings and won a Olympic Gold medal in the 2016 Rio games playing mixed doubles with Jack Sock. Additionally, Mattek-Sands played some doubles tournaments with Sofia Kenin recently as practice for the Olympics. Kenin/Mattek-Sands would be legitimate medal contenders.

There are also rumors that Serena Williams has been lobbying for her sister Venus to receive the final spot so they can play doubles together. Serena is currently ranked #394 in doubles and Venus is ranked #1322. On the strength of their rankings, they would be long shots for selection into the draw. Unless the USTA has detailed analysis that shows they would be accepted, I don’t think that it is likely that Venus Williams will be nominated for the Olympics by the USTA.

If Serena Williams does not play the Olympics, Pegula would slot into the singles and Mattek-Sands would likely get the final doubles roster position. I am guessing the women’s doubles pairings would be Kenin/Mattek-Sands and Melichar/Gauff. Gauff is the only American on the team that Melichar has recently played with. Gauff also the most accomplished doubles player of the singles players.

If Serena elects to play the Olympics, it raises the slight possibility that Melichar might pair with Williams instead of Gauff. There are a lot of moving parts on how this could work out.

Tomorrow I will take a similar look at the USA Men’s roster and likely mixed pairings. Spoiler alert: USA Men’s Tennis is a hot mess.