Tennis News You Can Use
“Tennis is the perfect social-distancing sport—and the numbers continue to prove it.” That is the first line from a USTA news article last week touting an increase in tennis participation in the United States. The headline of the same press release is “U.S. tennis participation surges in 2020, Physical Activity Council (PAC) report finds.” So what exactly is the PAC and what is in that report?
The PAC is an industry consortium that conduct an annual survey of physical activity in the United States. In their own words, “The PAC is made up of eight of the leading sports and manufacturer associations who are dedicated to growing participation in their respective sports and activities.” The USTA is among the partners in the PAC, which means that they partially funded the research in the report. A reference list of the 8 participating organizations is listed at the bottom of this article.
Deep Diving the PAC Report
The PAC summary report is freely available on the consortium’s website. I assume that each member industry association also received a more detailed version with data that is not reflected in the summary report. For example, the following excerpt from the USTA news release cannot be substantiated from the summary report that is available on the PAC official site.
Of the more than 21 million Americans saying they played tennis last year, 6.78 million were either new or returning/lapsed players. Nearly 3 million of those were first-time players, a 44% increase over new players in 2019. Additionally, the 3.82 million Americans who returned to the sport after time away was a 40% increase over the same measure in 2019.
USTA News Article, February 11, 2021. [1]
So first things first, the PAC report did not survey anywhere close to 21 million people. Like all surveys, it is a statistical sample of the total population. In 2020, the PAC report includes data from 18,000 people. The consortium paid credible attention paid to ensuring statistical accuracy of the data used as a basis for the PAC report. Those surveyed were selected specifically to be representative of the U.S. population for people ages six and older. Quotas of gender, age, income, region, and ethnicity were strictly enforced.
The headline of the USTA press release indicated that there was a surge in participation in 2020. Naturally I combed through the public summary report looking for evidence of that surge. What I found was the following graph in the “Participation Trends” section of the report. Actually, only the bars and the 13.9% were in the PAC report. I annotated the chart with the years and previous year’s participation rate for all Racquet Sports. (I was unable to locate an archived copy of the 2017 report, so I had to extrapolate a number for that year.)
The current PAC report indicates that participation in all racquet sports in 2020 was 13.9%. I personally probably would not have selected the word “surge” to describe that increase. Racquet sports participation was the highest it has been in 6 years, but that is barely above the level that it was in 2016.
Unfortunately, the PAC summary report does not provided further breakdown of the racquet sports data into the component parts. Thus, no detailed tennis specific data is published in that source. This is probably where this post should end, but the Fiend at Court isn’t quite done yet.
The PAC report indicates that the estimated population of the United States that is age six and older is 303,971,652. The United States Census Population Clock estimated the population of the United States to be 330,034,257 people at the end of 2020. The same source estimates that people 5 years of age and younger constitutes 7.19% of the population. A little math reveals that the US Census Population Clock estimates that there are 306,304,794 people 6 and over in the United States. So basically this shows that the 303,971,652 population used in the PAC study is reasonable.
A 13.9% participation rate against a population of 303,971,652 would mean that 42.2 million people participated in all racquet sports in 2020. According to the definition in the PAC study, racquet sports includes Badminton, Cardio Tennis, Pickleball, Pop Tennis, Racquetball, Squash, Table Tennis, and Tennis.
The USTA press release asserts that 21 million people played tennis in 2020. Since the PAC study indicated that over 42 million people played a racquet sport, an alternate headline could have been that only half of people who engaged in a racquet sport in 2020 played tennis. That seems low.
The USTA statement reveals that they most certainly have more granular data from a detailed PAC report. Additionally, it is clear that many of the sports listed in the racquet sports category don’t count as tennis… and they shouldn’t. For example, Table Tennis is not tennis. I would assume that Pickleball is also doesn’t count as tennis. Pop Tennis… that is a completely separate topic for another day.
Flashback to 2019
Going back shortly before the COVID pandemic started, the TIA Annual Forum held in September 2019 indicated that the primary challenges in the tennis industry were “flat participation and lackluster equipment sales.” Correlating that statement to the to the PAC report data available at that time, the latest racquet sports participation data actually reflected a sharp drop in participation. However, it is possible that the more detailed breakout of the tennis data was flat and that the decline was for other racquet sports.
The TIA forum in 2019 did include some nuggets of data that were likely gleaned from the PAC report that year. Specifically that the top two fastest growing sports based on participation over the last three years were Cardio Tennis (11.3% growth) and pickleball. (9.7% growth) That fact is included because this is the only instance I have come across where tennis is defeating pickleball. In related news, I think that Cardio Tennis counts as tennis.
Another concern detailed in that 2019 TIA forum was the continued rise in total “casual” players, which was coming at the expense of total “core” players. Core participants play the sport more frequently than casual players, and also account for the vast majority of consumer spending. The need to convert more casual players to core players was noted as being critical.
Finishing Shots
If it isn’t already patently obvious at this point, let me confess that I tend to geek out over industry data. It is good that the USTA is a partner in the PAC consortium since it enables independent data collection and analysis. I genuinely hope that the USTA is doing more than admiring the data or reading into it with confirmation bias that current initiatives are working.
Participation numbers are increasing. That fact likely has more to do with the COVID-19 pandemic rather than any promotional effort at the USTA. Rather than self-congratulatory press releases, I hope that there is active and diligent pursuit of new and returning players to retain them in the sport. It is what is needed in any case.
- U.S. tennis participation surges in 2020, Physical Activity Council (PAC) report finds, USTA National News Article, February 11, 2021.
- 2021 Physical Activity Council’s Overview on U.S. Participation, Physical Activity Council, undated PowerPoint presentation.
- 2020 Physical Activity Council’s Overview on U.S. Participation, Physical Activity Council, undated PowerPoint presentation.
- United States Census Population Clock, https://www.census.gov/popclock/, last viewed 2/20/2021.
- Challenges, Opportunities Presented at Annual TIA Tennis Forum, IHRSA Press Release, September 9, 2019
PAC Partner Organizations
- Club/Institutional Fitness: International Health, Racquet, and Sportsclub Association (IHRSA) www.ihrsa.org
- Football: USA Football www.usafootball.com
- Golf: National Golf Foundation (NGF) www.ngf.org
- Outdoor Activities: Outdoor Foundation (OF) www.outdoorfoundation.org
- Biking: People for Bikes (PFB) www.peopleforbikes.org
- Snow Sports: Snowsports Industries of America (SIA) www.snowsports.org
- TeamSports/IndividualSports/Fitness/WaterSports: Sports & Fitness Industry Association (SFIA) www.sfia.org
- Tennis: Tennis Industry Association (TIA) and United States Tennis Association (USTA) www.tennisindustry.org
